美联储“没想象中鹰”，华尔街不改降息押注，摩根系与花旗一致预期1月再降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December reflects a cautious approach, with major Wall Street banks maintaining expectations for further rate cuts in early 2024, despite some hawkish language in the policy statement [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Major banks like Citigroup and Morgan Stanley predict a rate cut in January 2024, with Citigroup expecting another cut in March and Morgan Stanley in April, while JPMorgan anticipates a subsequent observation period [2]. - Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Barclays expect the rate cut window to open in March, with a potential second cut in June, contrasting with Standard Chartered's view that there will be no cuts throughout 2025 [2]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Economic Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) displayed significant internal disagreement, with a voting result of 9 to 3, the highest number of dissenting votes since 2019, indicating ongoing debates about monetary policy [1][3]. - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2026 from 1.8% to 2.3% and for 2027 from 1.9% to 2.0%, reflecting resilience in consumer spending and increased AI capital expenditures [3]. Group 3: Powell's Remarks and Policy Direction - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that there is no preset path for future policy decisions, indicating that the focus is on balancing between maintaining rates and the magnitude of potential cuts [4]. - Powell noted that employment growth may have been overestimated, suggesting a possible reduction in average monthly job gains since April [4]. Group 4: Liquidity Measures - The Fed announced it would begin purchasing short-term Treasury securities starting December 12 to maintain adequate bank reserves, with an estimated monthly purchase of around $40 billion, alongside $20 billion in mortgage-backed securities reinvestment, totaling approximately $60 billion per month [6].