DLS MARKETS：美联储三连降后释放谨慎信号 2026年降息大门已关？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [1] - There is an internal divergence within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding the policy path, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others prefer to maintain the current rate [1] - The median projections for the federal funds rate remain unchanged for 2026 and 2027, at 3.25%-3.5% and 3%-3.25% respectively [1] Group 2 - Fed Chair Powell indicated that the current policy rate is within a reasonable neutral range, allowing for a careful assessment of upcoming economic data, with a low likelihood of a rate cut in January [1] - The Fed lowered its PCE inflation forecast for this year from 3% to 2.9% and for 2026 from 2.6% to 2.4%, suggesting a more dovish outlook [1] - Powell noted that high inflation is primarily driven by temporary factors such as tariffs, while service sector inflation is showing signs of cooling [1] Group 3 - The dovish signals from the labor market led to a positive market reaction, with the U.S. Treasury yield curve steepening [2] - The Fed will begin purchasing short-term Treasury securities at a rate of $40 billion per month to maintain adequate reserves in the banking system, reinforcing the steepening of the yield curve [2] - The market anticipates that if upcoming labor market data is weak, discussions about additional preventive rate cuts may resume [2] Group 4 - The Canadian central bank maintained its policy rate at 2.5%, citing a strong second-quarter economic growth of 2.6%, primarily due to a significant drop in imports [5] - The Canadian central bank expects economic weakness in the fourth quarter due to the interplay of recovering imports and domestic demand [5] - The Brazilian central bank kept its policy rate at 15%, maintaining a judgment of "economic cooling and improving inflation," despite current inflation being above the 3% target [5][6]