IEA下调油市供应过剩预期，揭开油价难跌之谜！

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its oil market supply and demand forecast, warning that the oversupply will reach a historical high despite a narrowing of expected oversupply due to OPEC+ production cuts [2] - IEA projects that by 2026, global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.815 million barrels per day, marking a historical high, but this is a downward revision of 231,000 barrels per day from last month’s forecast [2] - The IEA has also lowered its global crude oil supply growth expectations for this year and next year, from previously projected increases of 3.1 million barrels per day and 2.5 million barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and 2.4 million barrels per day, respectively [2] Group 2 - In November, Russian oil supply decreased, leading to export revenues falling to the lowest level since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while Venezuela's production also declined amid rising tensions with the U.S. [3] - OPEC+ has agreed to pause production increases in the first quarter of next year, with the IEA forecasting that the alliance will increase supply by 1.3 million barrels per day over the next two years [3] - Global oil demand growth expectations have been revised upward for the next two years, from previously projected increases of 788,000 barrels per day and 770,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day and 860,000 barrels per day, respectively [3] Group 3 - The IEA has softened its stance on the peak of oil demand, suggesting in its annual World Energy Outlook report that global oil consumption will continue to grow until 2050 [4] - As of the report's release, Brent crude was trading slightly below $62 per barrel, while WTI crude was around $58 per barrel, with investors closely monitoring diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [4] Group 4 - In October, global crude oil inventories surged to a four-year high, with significant increases in oil stored in transit or on water due to sanctions making it difficult to find buyers [6] - Preliminary data for November indicates that inventories will continue to rise, primarily concentrated in non-OECD countries [6] - The IEA noted that despite the apparent oversupply in the oil market and rising inventories, benchmark oil prices have only seen moderate declines in recent months, reflecting a complex interplay of various market forces [6]