UBS(US:UBS) Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-12-11 13:08Core Viewpoint - UBS Wealth Management anticipates strong growth in AI capital expenditure in 2026, with AI expected to continue leading global market gains. The Chinese market presents structural opportunities, particularly in the technology sector [1][2]. Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - In 2025, global capital markets performed well, with the Chinese stock market rising over 30% and the U.S. market rebounding more than 50% from April lows. Gold prices increased over 60%, marking the second-best annual performance since 1979 [2]. - UBS predicts that global AI capital expenditure will reach $500 billion in 2026, following a $350 billion expenditure in 2025. By 2030, AI revenue is expected to reach $3.1 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate of 30% [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - UBS recommends a diversified investment strategy, maintaining adequate liquidity and constructing cross-asset, cross-regional portfolios. This approach aims to provide better protection during market pullbacks [6]. - Alternative assets, such as gold, are suggested for risk hedging, with expectations that gold prices may reach $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026. The demand for gold remains structurally strong among central banks [6][7]. Group 3: Key Investment Themes - The first investment theme is AI itself, which, despite current returns being lower, is expected to generate significant revenue and transform global productivity [5]. - The second theme focuses on electricity and resources, as AI's rapid development will increase global electricity demand, driving up prices for related commodities like copper and promoting green energy sources [5]. - The third theme is the longevity economy, where the intersection of AI and health presents vast market opportunities, with potential revenue growth in pharmaceuticals, active nutrition, and precision diagnostics [5].