德银深度研究：2026年科技硬件行业七大核心主题与投资机会

Group 1: Semiconductor Market Trends - Severe memory shortages are driving a reevaluation of semiconductor equipment targets, with DRAM spot prices soaring by 300%-400% in the past three months, reaching $17 per GB for DDR4 and $13-14 per GB for DDR5 [2] - NAND flash market is experiencing similar trends, with core benchmark products seeing a 200% price increase over the last three months, and contract prices rising by 20%-60% [2] - The memory shortage is expected to continue until at least 2027, leading to significant increases in wafer fab equipment spending, particularly benefiting companies like ASML, VAT Group, and SUSS MicroTec [3][4] Group 2: AI and Component Supply Challenges - AI investments are crowding out supply for non-AI components, leading to potential shortages in memory, passive components, and optical components, which could impact consumer electronics, smartphones, PCs, and automotive electronics [4] - The automotive electronics sector is less affected due to dedicated production lines for automotive-grade products [5] Group 3: Optical and Testing Innovations - AI data centers are driving a surge in bandwidth demand, leading to advancements in optical components and the transition to higher-speed pluggable optical devices [3] - The testing sector is undergoing a structural transformation due to increased chip complexity and rising failure costs, with companies like Technoprobe expanding testing coverage to improve quality [6] Group 4: GaN and Power Semiconductor Opportunities - The shift to 800V architecture in AI data centers, driven by Nvidia, is creating opportunities for GaN technology, similar to the impact of SiC in Tesla applications [8] - AI processor power consumption is projected to grow from 7GW in 2023 to over 70GW by 2030, creating significant market opportunities for suppliers addressing power challenges [9] Group 5: Edge AI and Local Processing - Edge AI is gaining traction, with companies like AMD noting its growth potential, although it remains in the experimental phase [10] - Ambarella anticipates that its defined "edge AI" market will account for 80% of its total revenue by 2025, covering various applications [10] Group 6: Localization of Semiconductor Production in China - There is a significant shift in China's semiconductor capabilities, with local manufacturers facing increased pressure for domestic procurement and improving their scale and quality [11] - The year 2026 is expected to be pivotal as the market recognizes the potential shrinkage of Western companies' market size in China [11][12]