详解中央经济工作会议：推动投资止跌回稳，灵活高效降准降息

Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to enhance economic growth and stability in 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [1][2][3] Economic Growth and Challenges - China's economy is projected to achieve a growth target of around 5% for 2025, despite facing challenges such as weak domestic demand and external pressures [2][3] - From January to November, exports increased by 6.2% year-on-year, while industrial output grew by 6.1% and service sector output by 5.7%, indicating resilience in the economy [2] - However, retail sales only grew by 4.3%, and fixed asset investment declined by 1.7%, highlighting a "strong supply, weak demand" scenario [2] Policy Measures - The conference outlined eight key tasks for 2026, including prioritizing domestic demand and fostering innovation-driven growth [1] - Fiscal policy will see an increase in the deficit rate from 3% in 2024 to 4% in 2025, with a focus on maintaining necessary fiscal spending and optimizing tax incentives [7][8] - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, with expectations for further interest rate cuts to support economic stability and growth [9] Investment and Consumption - The government plans to enhance investment in key areas, including infrastructure and technology, with a focus on revitalizing private investment [10][12] - The "Two New" policies, aimed at upgrading equipment and promoting consumption, will continue to be implemented, with significant funds allocated to support these initiatives [10][12] Real Estate Market - The conference stressed the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with measures to control inventory and encourage the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing [16][17] - Policies will likely include easing purchase restrictions and providing financial support to boost housing demand [17] Debt Management - The government will continue to address local government debt risks, with a focus on proactive debt management and restructuring [18] - As of November, local governments had issued approximately 3.5 trillion yuan in various debt instruments to manage debt, exceeding initial targets [17][18]