中央经济工作会议解读：M2和社融淡出，结构性降息概率更大

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [1][2]. Monetary Policy Focus - The conference highlights the need for flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity and support key areas like domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium enterprises [1][2][10]. - There is a shift in focus from M2 and social financing (社融) indicators, as their controllability and relevance to the real economy have diminished, with a transition towards a price-oriented monetary policy framework [5][7]. Price Recovery and Economic Growth - The monetary policy will increasingly emphasize promoting reasonable price recovery, indicating that the central bank cannot act alone in this regard [2][8]. - The conference suggests that the relationship between social financing scale and monetary supply will align more closely with economic growth and price level expectations, marking a departure from previous frameworks [5][6]. Interest Rate Adjustments - The language around RRR cuts and interest rate reductions has softened, with expectations for limited frequency and magnitude of such adjustments in the coming year, leaning more towards structural interest rate cuts [2][12]. - Structural interest rate cuts are seen as more probable than broad-based reductions, aimed at supporting specific sectors while stabilizing banks' net interest margins [13][14]. Local Government Debt Management - The focus on resolving local government debt risks has shifted towards managing operational debts of financing platforms, primarily through debt restructuring centered on extending terms and reducing interest rates [2][14]. - The conference outlines a proactive approach to managing local government debt, emphasizing the need for transparency and market-based solutions for operational debts, with major participation from state-owned banks [15][16].