川财证券首席经济学家陈雳：中国经济更重视消费升级与内需拉动

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 macroeconomic outlook emphasizes a shift towards innovation-driven growth, with a focus on consumption and internal demand as key drivers of economic stability and transformation [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," where China's economy is expected to achieve qualitative improvements through deepened reforms and expanded openness [1]. - Consumption remains the "ballast stone" for economic growth, with internal demand being elevated to a strategic priority [3]. - The transition from traditional factor-driven growth to innovation-driven growth is anticipated, alongside accelerated construction of a modern industrial system [3]. Group 2: Policy and Monetary Environment - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a moderately loose stance, characterized by stability in total volume and precision in structure [4]. - The timing and intensity of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments will be flexibly managed based on economic conditions and inflation [4]. - There is an expectation for an increase in the scale of special bonds to support effective investment and ensure funding continuity for ongoing projects [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - A combination of policies is expected to stabilize and activate the market, with the capital market showing a more robust and active trend in 2025 [4]. - The A-share market is projected to experience a structural bull market led by technology and new materials, with significant gains in sectors such as precious metals, communication, and power equipment [5]. - The military industry is anticipated to enter a new development cycle driven by certain demand and structural upgrades, while the coal and electricity sectors may present structural opportunities [5].