反内卷预期凉透了！氧化铝跌破现金成本，高成本厂要集体停产？

Core Viewpoint - The alumina market is experiencing a significant price drop, with futures falling below 2,600 yuan/ton, leading to over 90% of production capacity facing cost overruns and forcing high-cost plants to reduce output, indicating a major reshuffle in the aluminum industry [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 5, 2025, the main contract for domestic alumina futures closed at 2,590 yuan/ton, marking a historical low since its listing [1] - The current futures price is significantly below the industry-recognized cash cost range of 2,850-2,950 yuan/ton and the full cost line of 3,070-3,170 yuan/ton, resulting in cash losses of at least 260 yuan per ton for over 90% of domestic alumina production capacity [4] - The spot market is also weak, with prices dropping below 2,800 yuan/ton, creating a "double kill" effect alongside the futures market [6] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing decline in alumina prices is primarily due to a severe imbalance in supply and demand, characterized by three main pressures on the supply side [11] - Domestic alumina production capacity is expected to increase by 10.3 million tons by 2025, with operational capacity reaching a historical peak of 9.36 million tons, exceeding normal operational levels [13] - The import of alumina is expected to remain high, with a significant increase in alumina exports from provinces like Fujian, exacerbating domestic supply pressures [13] Group 3: Cost Factors - The price support from bauxite, the core raw material for alumina production, has weakened, with bauxite prices dropping from $115/ton to around $70/ton, allowing for further declines in alumina prices [15] - The demand for alumina is limited due to the "45 million tons capacity ceiling" policy in the electrolytic aluminum industry, which has only seen a slight increase in operational capacity [15][17] Group 4: Industry Restructuring - The industry is entering a phase of capacity reduction as prices breach cost lines, with high-cost production facilities in northern regions facing significant risks of production cuts [19] - The market price mechanism is becoming the core driver of industry changes, replacing previous policy expectations as the primary influence on production decisions [21] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines that require new alumina projects to meet advanced energy efficiency and environmental performance standards, facilitating the exit of high-cost, low-efficiency capacities [23] Group 5: Market Differentiation - The trend of industry differentiation is becoming more pronounced, with leading companies like China Aluminum maintaining profitability due to resource advantages, while smaller, high-cost firms face significant losses [24]