全国卖地收入，回到了2015年

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Chengdu is experiencing significant challenges, with a notable decline in land auction activity and developer interest, reflecting broader national trends in the industry [1][11]. Group 1: Land Auction Dynamics - Recent rumors about a pause in land auctions in Chengdu highlight the prevailing market anxiety, despite scheduled auctions continuing into December [1]. - A recent land auction in the Pidu District saw a local developer win a plot with a 40% premium, marking a rare moment of competition in an otherwise subdued market [4]. - In contrast, several prime plots in the city center failed to attract bids, indicating a lack of confidence among developers in the current market conditions [4][5]. Group 2: Market Trends and Pricing - The average floor price for residential land in Chengdu has dropped to 6,973 yuan per square meter in the second half of the year, down from 10,824 yuan in the first half, with average premium rates also declining significantly [10]. - The overall land supply in Chengdu has increased, with 15 plots offered in November and 17 in December, yet only two plots achieved premiums in November, reflecting weak demand [8][11]. - Nationally, land transaction revenues are projected to fall to around 2.8 trillion yuan, reminiscent of figures from a decade ago, with current average premium rates at 5.44%, half of what they were ten years prior [12][14]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The current market conditions echo those of 2015, a low point in the previous real estate cycle, characterized by falling prices and a retreat of developers to major cities [15]. - The industry is at a critical juncture, with uncertainty about future recovery mechanisms, contrasting with the previous cycle's stimulus measures [19].