泡泡玛特四个月市值蒸发2000亿港元

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has been declining significantly, with a cumulative drop of approximately 40% since its peak in August 2023, resulting in a market value loss of over 200 billion HKD (approximately 180 billion RMB) [1][4] Company Performance - In the first half of 2024, Pop Mart reported a net profit of 920 million RMB, with an expected total net profit of 3.13 billion RMB for the entire year [1] - By the first half of 2025, Pop Mart's net profit reached 4.57 billion RMB [1] Product and IP Analysis - The surge in stock price was partly driven by the popularity of its flagship IP, LABUBU, which gained significant traction in 2025, becoming a "traffic password" [1] - LABUBU's popularity has led to high demand, with products selling out domestically and long queues at overseas stores [1] Market Concerns - Despite the initial success, there are concerns about the sustainability of LABUBU's popularity as production capacity has increased significantly, leading to a potential decline in perceived scarcity [2][4] - The market premium for LABUBU and other popular IPs has started to diminish, with the price of hidden versions dropping by over 50% since August 2023 [4] - Consumer fatigue is evident, as prices for certain products, such as the mini LABUBU series, have decreased by over 40% from their peak [4] Strategic Insights - Management has indicated a focus on selling quality products rather than treating them as investment vehicles [5] - Industry analysts suggest that the value of blind boxes and related products is primarily derived from their IP, and there is room for improvement in the depth of IP stories and the richness of the IP matrix [5] - The rapid rise in stock price and product popularity has created a "virtual fire," which poses risks for the company as it seeks to stabilize its market value and find new growth opportunities [5]