账面狂赚2.8亿，Soul藏隐忧，180万人难撑IPO

Core Viewpoint - Soul is making its fourth attempt to go public in Hong Kong, showcasing impressive financials but heavily reliant on a small number of paying users, raising concerns about its long-term sustainability [3][9]. Financial Performance - Projected revenue for 2025 is 1.683 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17.8%, and an adjusted net profit margin reaching 17% [3]. - The majority of revenue, 82.3%, is generated from the top 10% of users, who spend an average of 919 yuan per month, a significant increase from 646 yuan in 2022 [10]. User Base Dynamics - Monthly active users stand at 28 million, down from a peak of over 30 million during the pandemic, and decreased by 1.4 million compared to 2022 [3][10]. - The number of paying users has dropped from 170,000 to 150,000, indicating a potential issue with user retention despite a rise in average revenue per user (ARPU) by 21.8% [10]. Market Position and Competition - Major investors like Tencent and miHoYo recognize the potential in monetizing emotional connections, viewing it as a more stable business model than traditional gaming [11]. - Competitors like Summer, which require educational verification, are attracting users seeking a more curated social experience, highlighting Soul's struggle with user quality [13]. AI Integration and User Sentiment - Soul is heavily promoting AI features, mentioning "AI" 264 times in its prospectus, but user feedback indicates skepticism towards AI's ability to provide genuine social interaction [16][17]. - Despite 4.6 million daily users engaging with AI features, many view it as a novelty rather than a replacement for real human connection [16]. Debt and Financial Health - Soul carries a debt of 12.4 billion, with obligations that include an 8% annual interest rate, complicating its financial outlook despite recent profitability [19]. - The company is perceived as seeking emergency funding rather than a genuine IPO, as it struggles to align its business model with user needs [19][23]. User Experience and Community Engagement - The remaining 180,000 paying users are primarily seeking authentic connections rather than expensive virtual goods or AI interactions [21]. - The company needs to focus on improving its matching algorithms and community atmosphere to better meet user expectations and reduce churn [23].