Can Eli Lilly Sustain Its Obesity Momentum as Newer Players Emerge?

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is a leading player in the cardiometabolic space, primarily due to its GLP-1 therapies, Mounjaro and Zepbound, both containing tirzepatide [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Mounjaro and Zepbound generated combined sales of $24.8 billion in the first nine months of 2025, accounting for 54% of Eli Lilly's total revenues [2] - Eli Lilly's stock has gained 27% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 7.2% [13] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly faces strong competition from Novo Nordisk's semaglutide medicines, Ozempic and Wegovy, but has seen strong uptake of its own drugs [2][9] - Smaller biotech companies, such as Structure Therapeutics and Viking Therapeutics, are advancing rapidly in the obesity treatment space, increasing competitive pressure on Eli Lilly [3][11] Group 3: Pipeline Development - Eli Lilly is advancing next-generation obesity candidates, including orforglipron and retatrutide, to maintain its market position [6][8] - Orforglipron is positioned as a convenient once-daily oral alternative to injectable therapies, with regulatory filings expected soon [7] - Retatrutide is designed for deeper and faster weight loss, with three phase III data readouts anticipated in the second half of 2026 [8] Group 4: Financial Valuation - Eli Lilly's stock trades at a price/earnings ratio of 30.26, higher than the industry average of 16.31, but below its five-year mean of 34.54 [16] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have improved from $23.06 to $23.91 per share, and for 2026 from $30.79 to $33.36 [19]