汇率新动向！12月11日人民币兑美元中间价上调
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-11 19:15

Group 1: Core Insights - The Chinese Yuan (RMB) has shown a continuous appreciation against the US Dollar, with the central parity rate reported at 7.0753, marking a rise of 20 basis points from the previous day, indicating positive market supply and demand dynamics [1] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.0638, appreciating by 55 points, with a trading volume exceeding 28.7 billion USD, reflecting increased market activity [1] - The offshore RMB also appreciated, closing at 7.0622, with the spread between onshore and offshore rates narrowing to 16 basis points, reducing opportunities for cross-border arbitrage [1] Group 2: Yearly Review - The RMB exchange rate experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, initially declining to 7.35 due to escalated US tariff strategies, but began to appreciate from October, with a cumulative increase of over 3.5% in the second half of the year [3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index reached 99.2, reflecting a 1.8% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating improved stability against a basket of currencies [3] Group 3: Driving Factors - Three main factors contribute to the strong performance of the RMB: 1. Decreasing inflation in the US, with a high probability (87.6%) of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December, which could reduce depreciation pressure on the RMB [4] 2. Improvement in domestic economic fundamentals, with a narrowing decline in PPI, a return of manufacturing PMI to expansion, and a 3.8% month-on-month increase in exports [4] 3. Enhanced policy tools, including improved counter-cyclical adjustments and expanded pilot programs for cross-border trade settlements in local currencies [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain a strong oscillation towards the end of the year, with a potential fluctuation center moving to between 7.05 and 7.10 [8] - The long-term outlook for the RMB remains optimistic, contingent on the effectiveness of domestic growth strategies and the pace of US monetary policy adjustments [8]