明年货币政策或更重视稳预期目标

Monetary Policy Overview - The central economic work conference held on December 10-11 maintained a policy tone of "moderate easing," emphasizing the efficiency and proactivity of policy tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The macro policy orientation shifted from "strengthening extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," indicating a focus on long-term economic cycle changes [2] Policy Implementation Characteristics - Throughout 2025, the monetary policy maintained a consistent moderate easing tone, with RRR cuts and interest rate reductions implemented to ensure stable funding rates [3] - Fiscal policy was notably proactive in 2025, with significant government bond issuance and increased fiscal spending in the first half of the year, aligning with the macro policy orientation [3] Core Objectives and Framework - The core objectives of monetary policy include enhancing expectations management, with increased flexibility in total monetary operations to address economic risks and uncertainties [4] - Coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is crucial, aiming to create a conducive environment for stable financial markets and successful government bond issuance [4] - A new policy interest rate transmission mechanism and liquidity management framework were established, focusing on reforming the monetary policy transmission mechanism [5] Future Outlook - For 2026, the focus will be on stabilizing growth and managing risks while emphasizing expectations management and fiscal coordination [5] - The first half of 2026 may see a need for total easing operations to lower social financing costs and stabilize expectations due to high growth base effects [5] - The central bank is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds through a 0.5 percentage point RRR cut in early 2026, alongside continued use of MLF and reverse repos for medium-term liquidity [6] Interest Rate Dynamics - The central bank's interest rate reduction space has opened up due to the Federal Reserve's continuous rate cuts, with expectations for a 10 basis point reduction in the policy rate in both the first and second halves of 2026 [7] - By the end of 2026, the 7-day reverse repo policy rate is projected to decrease to 1.2%, with the LPR also expected to follow suit [7]