美联储降息落地 白银继续走强

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve continued to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, aligning with market expectations, and is anticipated to have one more rate cut next year [1][2] - The Fed's decision reflects a more optimistic outlook on economic growth and inflation, with a focus on employment risks [1][2] - The Fed has initiated the purchase of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds to maintain adequate reserve supply, with the timing and scale exceeding previous expectations [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed has raised GDP growth forecasts for this year and the next three years while slightly lowering the unemployment rate forecast for 2027 by 0.1 percentage points [3] - Inflation expectations have been further reduced, with projections indicating a return to 2% by 2028, suggesting a more optimistic economic outlook [3] - The Fed is likely to remain inactive on rate changes until a new chair is appointed, with the new chair expected to signal a dovish stance [3] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with a projected market shortfall of 2,950 tons in 2025, continuing a five-year trend of supply shortages [4] - Recent optimism and interest rate cuts have driven silver prices to historical highs, supported by both financial and commodity attributes [4] - COMEX silver inventories have significantly decreased, indicating a tightening in the physical market, which may lead to further price increases [4] Group 4: Gold-Silver Ratio - The gold-silver ratio has decreased to around 66, nearing the low point of 2023, driven by a significant rise in silver prices [5][6] - Silver's industrial demand, accounting for nearly 60%, makes its price more sensitive to economic cycles compared to gold, which has a lower industrial demand [5][6] - The recent recovery in the gold-silver ratio is attributed to silver's stronger performance in the context of interest rate cuts and robust demand [6]