白银年内大涨近120%，后市行情如何发展？

Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as a leading investment asset in 2023, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 120%, particularly accelerating in the second half of the year [1][2][3]. Price Movements - As of December 11, 2023, spot silver prices surpassed $62 per ounce, reaching a high of $62.884 per ounce, setting a new historical record [1]. - COMEX silver prices also broke through $63 per ounce, peaking at $63.25 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw its main silver contract rise to a maximum of 14,655 yuan per kilogram, with an increase exceeding 5% [1][2]. - Silver's price has shown a significant upward trend, with a cumulative increase of nearly 120% for the year, particularly after breaking the $40 per ounce mark on September 1, 2023 [3]. Market Drivers - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%—3.75% has been a key driver, marking the third consecutive rate cut of the year and a total reduction of 75 basis points [2]. - Silver's price is more sensitive to changes in the dollar due to its smaller market size compared to gold, attracting investors seeking lower-cost safe-haven assets [2][4]. - Strong industrial demand for silver, particularly in sectors like AI servers, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles, is expected to support prices [4][5]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The Silver Institute predicts a structural supply deficit of approximately 95 million ounces in the global silver market by 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [5]. - Global silver supply is expected to remain stable at around 813 million ounces, with a slight increase in recycling supply, while demand from the photovoltaic industry is projected to significantly boost silver demand [5]. Future Market Expectations - Analysts suggest that while silver prices may experience short-term volatility, the long-term bullish outlook remains intact due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [6][7]. - The price of silver is expected to trade between $43 and $62 per ounce by 2026, primarily driven by investment demand [6].