2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-12-11 23:35Core Viewpoint - The performance trajectory and structural differentiation of bank stocks are central topics as 2026 approaches, with expectations of a mild recovery in overall performance driven by macro policy support and easing risks [1][2] Group 1: Industry Performance Outlook - There is a consensus among institutions that the banking sector will see a mild recovery in revenue and net profit due to alleviated pressure from narrowing interest margins and growth in wealth management and other fee-based businesses [2][3] - The growth dynamics of the banking industry are shifting from homogeneous scale expansion to differentiated competition based on customer loyalty, business structure, and operational efficiency [3] - Major banks with established advantages in settlement and wealth management are expected to outperform smaller banks, which may face increased investment pressures [3] Group 2: Interest Margin and Asset Quality - The net interest margin is anticipated to stabilize in 2026, supported by improvements in deposit costs and a reduction in downward pressure on asset yields [4] - While overall asset quality is expected to remain stable, there is a shift in risk focus from the overall sector to specific banks, with those managing retail assets and real estate exposure effectively showing greater resilience [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are converging on three main areas: large state-owned banks, regional banks benefiting from local economic vitality, and banks with specific recovery or transformation potential [9][10] - Large state-owned banks are viewed as defensive choices with high allocation value due to their stable operations and attractive dividends [9] - Regional banks with solid asset quality and strong performance certainty, particularly in economically developed areas, are highlighted as targets for excess returns [9][10]