美联储如期降息 降息周期下汇率升值引市场连锁反应

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year [1] - The Chinese yuan is approaching the important 7.0 level against the US dollar, with the central parity rate set at 7.0686 yuan per dollar, reflecting a rise of 67 basis points from the previous trading day [1] - Analysts expect the yuan to perform strongly towards the end of the year, with a possibility of temporarily breaking the 7.0 level due to seasonal effects in foreign exchange settlements [1] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices have risen due to the Fed's rate cut and increased risk aversion, with spot gold reaching $4247 per ounce before retreating, and silver hitting a historical high of $62.88 per ounce [2] - The A-share precious metals sector has also seen gains, with a closing increase of 0.51%, and specific stocks like Shanjin International rising by 6.06% [2] - Factors such as the Fed's rate cut, ongoing regional conflicts, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike are supporting a bullish outlook for gold prices amid global political and economic uncertainties [2] Group 3 - The US dollar index has fallen over 8% this year, leading to an appreciation of the yuan, with onshore yuan trading at 7.0601 and offshore yuan reaching a 14-month high of 7.0538 [3] - Over 30 A-share companies have announced plans to engage in foreign exchange hedging to manage risks associated with currency fluctuations, driven by concerns over shrinking export revenues [3] - Companies are increasingly prioritizing currency risk hedging as a response to the volatility in exchange rates, which threatens profit margins [3] Group 4 - Institutions are generally optimistic about the medium to long-term outlook for the yuan, with predictions of a continued weak dollar index providing a favorable external environment for the yuan [4] - Analysts forecast that the yuan may appreciate moderately, potentially breaking the 7.0 level against the dollar by 2026, supported by a structural weakness in the dollar and net inflows of investment funds [4] - If the annual exchange rate volatility remains between 3.0%-4.0%, the yuan could reach a range of 6.70-6.80 by the end of 2026 [4]