道指、标普创新高，甲骨文暴跌拖累纳指，金银齐涨

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reaching new highs driven by cyclical stocks, while the tech sector faced pressure due to Oracle's significant drop [2] - The Dow closed up 646.26 points, or 1.34%, at 48,704.01, marking a record high [2] - The S&P 500 rose 0.21% to 6,901.00, also setting a new closing record, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.26% to 23,593.86, with tech stocks underperforming [2] Sector Performance - Small-cap stocks performed particularly well, with the Russell 2000 index rising 1.21% to 2,590.61, also reaching a historical high [2] - Oracle's stock plummeted 10.83% after reporting cloud revenue below expectations and announcing an additional $15 billion investment in data centers, raising concerns about "AI capital expenditure overheating" [2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the policy interest rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating a more moderate easing phase, with future rate cuts expected to be slower than in the current year [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the current economic conditions remain resilient, and future inflation may stabilize due to the one-time upward pressure from tariffs implemented during the Trump administration [3] Economic Data - Initial jobless claims rose to 236,000, significantly above the expected 220,000, marking the largest weekly increase since 2020, indicating a cooling labor market [4] - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $52.8 billion in September, the lowest level in five years, supported by a 3% increase in exports [4] Market Predictions - Analysts predict that the S&P 500 may have a chance to reach 7,000 points in the short term, as investors digest potential uncertainties in the AI sector [4] - However, there are warnings of higher risks in the coming year, with expectations that the S&P 500 could decline to 6,500 points by the end of 2026 due to pressures from AI capital expenditures and potential policy uncertainties with a new Fed chair [4] Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell by 2.3 basis points to 4.141%, while the two-year yield decreased by 3.9 basis points to 3.526% [4] Commodity Market - Following the interest rate cut, the U.S. dollar weakened, leading to a strong performance in precious metals, with gold prices rising by 2.1% to $4,313 per ounce, a one-month high [5] - Crude oil prices fell, with light crude futures for January 2026 dropping by $0.86 to $57.60 per barrel, a decline of 1.47% [5]