PX围绕成本端运行

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday in 2025, international oil prices have continued to decline, leading to a weak overall pattern in the polyester industry chain. Despite some overseas facilities shutting down or reducing output, domestic PX operating rates remain high for the year [1] Group 1: PX Market Dynamics - PX prices fell to a six-month low of 6258 yuan/ton on October 15 due to weak cost and fundamental factors [1] - PX social inventory decreased from nearly 3 million tons at the beginning of the year to around 1.5 million tons by the end of October, which is historically low and provides solid support for PX fundamentals [1] - The decline in inventory is attributed to a mismatch in the timing of capacity additions between PX and PTA, with PTA adding 8.7 million tons of new capacity this year and another 4.5 million tons planned for 2026, while PX only added 200,000 tons in the past two years [1] Group 2: Downstream Polyester Resilience - The downstream polyester segment has shown strong resilience, with winter cold waves improving textile orders and restoring polyester profits, which in turn boosts PTA operating rates and supports PX demand [2] - Two macro events in November, namely the suspension of tariff increases between China and the U.S. until November 10, 2026, and India's cancellation of mandatory BIS certification for certain chemical products, have also bolstered market confidence [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - In the upcoming winter, global gasoline prices outside mainland China are expected to remain strong, but their impact on PX is limited as most MX still flows to PX production [3] - Planned maintenance for PX is concentrated in the second and fourth quarters of next year, with new facilities expected to come online in the second half, leading to a tight supply situation in the first half and potentially good industry profits [3] - The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to support PX demand from domestic polyester and PTA exports, with a neutral to strong fundamental outlook in the short term [4]