降息靴子落地美股为何跳水？三大反常信号警示衰退风险

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates for the third time this year was expected to be a positive signal for the capital markets, yet the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 500 points, indicating investor confusion [1] - There are three key abnormal signals that suggest underlying risks: significant internal dissent among Federal Reserve officials, a surprising drop in technology stocks, and a rare divergence between the bond and stock markets [3][5] Group 2 - Internal dissent within the Federal Reserve reached a five-year high, with three dissenting votes among the 12 committee members, indicating potential policy shifts [3] - Technology stocks, which typically benefit from rate cuts, were led by Apple, which fell 4.2% following a report of a 13% year-over-year revenue decline in Greater China, reflecting global trade uncertainties [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.35% despite the rate cut, creating a rare divergence from the stock market, which historically has preceded significant market downturns [5] Group 3 - The market has shifted from "expectation games" to "fact verification," with rising unemployment risks and a September unemployment rate of 3.8%, making the rationale for preventive rate cuts increasingly difficult to justify [5] - The upcoming December dot plot could reveal a significant divergence from market expectations, potentially leading to a repeat of the "expectation massacre" seen in December 2018, which caused a 9.2% drop in the S&P 500 [5]