Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday in 2025, international oil prices have continued to decline, leading to a weak overall pattern in the polyester industry chain. Despite some overseas facilities shutting down or reducing output, domestic PX operating rates remain high for the year [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - PX prices have come under pressure due to weak fundamentals and cost factors, with the main contract dropping to a six-month low of 6258 yuan/ton on October 15 [1] - The rebound in oil prices in late October has helped restore cost support for the polyester industry chain, while the PTA industry conference has improved market sentiment [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Outlook - The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to support domestic polyester and PTA exports, leading to a neutral to strong demand for PX in the short term, with the core logic still revolving around cost pricing [1] - In the long term, the production capacity of PX is expected to exceed that of PTA next year, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance initially, followed by a loosening trend [1]
PX围绕成本端运行，基本面中性偏强
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-12 00:28