2026经济形势如何？政策如何发力？对话三位首席经济学家

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to economic work in 2026, focusing on both policy support and reform innovation, while aiming for quality improvement and reasonable growth in the economy [1][2]. Economic Policy Direction - The conference advocates for a "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy" to enhance economic stability and growth [1][4]. - There is an expectation for fiscal policy to strengthen, particularly in areas of "investment in people" and consumer support [2][4]. - Monetary policy is anticipated to allow for interest rate cuts of 10 to 20 basis points, with a focus on efficiency and proactivity [2][4][7]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - The conference identifies "domestic demand as the leading force" and emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption through specific actions, including a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income [2][8]. - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area for policy focus in 2026, with measures to enhance consumer spending and support for social security [2][10]. Risk Mitigation in Real Estate - The conference stresses the need to "actively and prudently resolve risks in key areas," particularly in stabilizing the real estate market [3][11]. - Measures include encouraging the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing projects and reforming the housing provident fund system [11][12]. - The focus on real estate is seen as crucial for preventing risks from spreading to local government debt and the financial system [3][12][13]. Fiscal and Monetary Coordination - There is an emphasis on the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, with fiscal measures expected to be more direct and monetary policies remaining moderately loose [4][5]. - The fiscal deficit is projected to maintain around 4%, with an increase in the scale of fiscal deficits to approximately 6 trillion yuan [6][7]. Long-term Economic Planning - The conference indicates that policy formulation will focus on long-term economic development rather than short-term stimulus effects, aligning with the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5][6]. - The approach will include a comprehensive evaluation of various economic policies to ensure consistency and effectiveness in macroeconomic policy direction [5][6].