宏观市场 | 修复居民资产负债表的四种路径与政策镜鉴

Group 1 - Since the first quarter of 2024, the leverage ratio of the household sector in China has begun to decline slowly, indicating a gradual repair of the household balance sheet [1][4] - The decline in household leverage can be achieved through four main paths: debt write-downs, stock market increases, real estate appreciation, and income growth [1][2] - Historical experiences from the US and Japan show that the repair of household balance sheets is often linked to the real estate market entering a downward cycle [4][5] Group 2 - The US and Japan's experiences highlight the importance of bad debt disposal in the initial phase of deleveraging, with the US government quickly implementing measures during the subprime crisis [2][23] - The wealth effect from rising stock assets significantly contributes to the decline in household leverage, particularly in the US, where stock assets account for a high proportion of total household assets [24][27] - Real estate recovery typically occurs later in the deleveraging process, often as a result of debt clearance and improvements in household income [24][26] Group 3 - Recommendations for China include increasing efforts to address bad debts in the real estate sector, such as establishing a "National Housing Bank" to facilitate debt clearance [3][26] - Enhancing the role of stock assets in repairing household balance sheets by allowing investment in stocks through pension accounts could improve the proportion of stock investments in household assets [27] - Improving mechanisms for household income growth is essential, with suggestions to encourage leading companies to raise wages and develop knowledge-intensive service exports to create more job opportunities [28]