中信证券：海外降息周期环境宽松 人民币币值阶段性走强

Group 1 - Weak real estate market is dragging down credit and inflation recovery, with continued low consumer willingness to purchase homes and slow inventory clearance [2] - Local government fiscal pressure is increasing due to rising bond issuance rates, necessitating short-term interest rate cuts to support the economy [2] - The recent appreciation of the RMB provides a temporary window for interest rate cuts, supported by a favorable external environment due to the Fed's easing cycle [3] Group 2 - Commercial banks are adjusting their liability structures, alleviating net interest margin pressure by reducing long-term deposit products and costs [4] - The continuation of a loose monetary policy cycle may improve the demand for long-term bonds, with expectations of enhanced performance in the bond market by early 2026 [5]