经济学家：日本央行下周加息“板上钉钉”，焦点转向未来路径与中性利率线索

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy interest rate to 0.75% next week, marking the first rate hike since January, as all 50 surveyed economists anticipate this change [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The Bank of Japan is set to restart its rate hike cycle after pausing for several months to assess the impact of Donald Trump's tariff policies [1] - Approximately two-thirds of analysts believe the central bank will raise rates about every six months starting this month, while 20% expect only one hike per year [1] - The median forecast for the terminal rate of this rate hike cycle has risen to 1.25%, indicating expectations for two additional hikes after the initial increase [1] Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - A significant 81% of economists attribute the weak yen as a primary factor prompting the Bank of Japan to signal a rate hike [3] - The yen's depreciation has raised concerns about further inflation due to more expensive imports, leading to increased pressure on the central bank to act [2] - The Prime Minister's government has not opposed the rate hike, with 98% of respondents indicating that the yen's exchange rate is a key factor preventing pressure on the Bank of Japan to halt rate increases [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Concerns - The 10-year government bond yield is hovering around 2%, the highest level since 2006, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal health and increasing government debt servicing costs [4] - Approximately 71% of economists believe that a new economic plan, which allocates 17.7 trillion yen (approximately 113 billion USD) to mitigate inflation, is overly ambitious [4] - Analysts warn that if the 10-year yield continues to rise, the Bank of Japan may become hesitant to pursue further rate hikes [4]