沪锡 维持高位震荡

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is expected to experience a phase of marginal supply easing and seasonal demand pressure in 2026, with global inventories remaining low and macroeconomic conditions providing support, leading to a high-level fluctuation of the Shanghai tin futures contract. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The price of Shanghai tin futures reached a three-and-a-half-year high of 323,700 yuan/ton due to supply concerns from geopolitical conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and expectations of macroeconomic easing [1] - The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa region has progressed, with the current mine recovery rate reaching two-thirds, leading to an expected increase in tin imports from Myanmar to an average of 1,000 to 1,500 metal tons per month in Q1 2026 [1] - Indonesia's Timah company aims to significantly increase production in 2026, but ongoing crackdowns on illegal mining may lead to supply reductions for some small and medium-sized producers [1] Group 2: Demand Trends - The domestic refined tin smelting sector is expected to maintain stable operations in Q1 2026, with raw material constraints easing compared to 2025, leading to a slight year-on-year increase in tin ingot supply [2] - Traditional consumption sectors are showing significant seasonal weakness, with the consumer electronics market not showing substantial recovery, and global smartphone shipments predicted to decline by 0.9% year-on-year in 2026 [2] - The home appliance industry faces demand pressure following the withdrawal of national subsidies, with domestic sales growth slowing and export benefits from emerging markets insufficient to offset domestic weakness [2] Group 3: Price Outlook - The tin market is expected to continue the pattern of "marginal supply easing and seasonal demand pressure" in Q1 2026, with increased supply from Myanmar and Indonesia suppressing price upward potential [3] - The core trading range for the Shanghai tin futures contract is anticipated to be between 280,000 and 330,000 yuan/ton in early 2026, influenced by macroeconomic liquidity support from potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3] - Key factors to monitor include the actual progress of production resumption in Myanmar, the approval schedule for Indonesia's RKAB quotas, and the stability of the DRC [3]