中央经济工作会议定调：2026年保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing fiscal expenditure structures [2][3][4]. Fiscal Policy Direction - The conference reiterates the need for a proactive fiscal policy while highlighting the importance of fiscal management and addressing local fiscal difficulties [2][4]. - The expected budget deficit for 2026 is likely to remain at 4%, corresponding to approximately 5.9 trillion yuan, with local government special bonds potentially increasing to 4.5 trillion yuan [3]. Policy Stability and Optimization - The tone of the meeting indicates a shift from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization," suggesting a focus on maintaining stability in fiscal policy rather than aggressive increases in spending [4][5]. - The "Two New" policies are expected to continue, with a greater emphasis on service consumption and significant projects aligned with the 14th Five-Year Plan [4]. Tax System and Local Government Revenue - There is a call to improve the local tax system, with potential adjustments to the proportion of shared taxes to stabilize local government revenues [6]. - The meeting highlights the need for a flexible monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize prices, with tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions being considered [6][7]. Debt Management and Risk Mitigation - The focus on debt management includes optimizing debt restructuring methods and addressing risks associated with local government financing platforms [8]. - The scale of hidden local government debt is expected to decrease significantly, with estimates suggesting it could fall to around 6.5 to 7 trillion yuan by the end of the year [8]. Government Debt Issuance - Predictions indicate that in 2026, the total issuance of special government bonds could reach 2 trillion yuan, alongside 2 trillion yuan for replacing hidden debts, leading to an overall increase in government debt of approximately 14.4 trillion yuan [9].