“反内卷”政策助推，大宗化工品复苏在望，聚焦石化ETF（159731）布局价值

Group 1 - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Petrochemical ETF (159731) experiencing a slight decline of approximately 0.35%, while stocks like Bluestar Technology, Hangyang Co., and Dongfang Shenghong are among the top gainers [1] - Huatai Securities anticipates a significant decrease in industry capital expenditure growth starting from 2025, which, along with the "anti-involution" trend, is expected to facilitate supply-side coordination and the elimination of outdated production capacity [1] - Domestic demand is expected to recover further, supported by exports to Asia, Africa, and Latin America, leading to a gradual recovery in bulk chemical products [1] Group 2 - Long-term oil prices are expected to have cost bottom support, and high-dividend companies with the ability to increase production and reduce costs, as well as those with incremental natural gas, present investment opportunities [1] - Domestic chemical products have cost advantages and competitive pricing, with domestic tire manufacturers likely to continue increasing their global market share due to these advantages [1] - High dividend assets are expected to see an increase in willingness and ability to distribute dividends, with phosphate resources likely to maintain high prosperity for at least three years [1] Group 3 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its connected funds (017855/017856) closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.39% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.71% of the index, indicating potential benefits from policies aimed at anti-involution, structural adjustments, and the elimination of outdated production capacity [1]