矿业ETF（561330）盘中涨超1.6%，有色金属行业价格弹性有望加速释放

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upstream resource disruptions and midstream smelting capacity issues continue, while resilient demand from new energy and emerging industries like AI opens up long-term growth potential. A loose monetary environment is expected to drive a resonance between macroeconomic factors and fundamentals [1] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, the weakening of the US dollar and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to enhance gold's monetary attributes, while a weak dollar provides upward momentum for industrial metals. Supply constraints are becoming a core logic for industrial metals, with copper and aluminum facing resource constraints or capacity bottlenecks [1] - For energy metals like cobalt and lithium, significant improvements in supply and demand are anticipated due to the implementation of policies in major producing countries and the clearing of overseas capacities, leading to an upward shift in price levels [1] - In the precious metals sector, rising US fiscal issues and political risks support gold's safe-haven attributes, with a bullish outlook on gold price levels [1] - Overall, the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to see accelerated price elasticity release driven by both macroeconomic and fundamental factors [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the mining and processing of resources such as copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining sector [1] - This index exhibits strong cyclicality and sensitivity to commodity prices, effectively reflecting market trends in the non-ferrous metal mining sector [1]