兴业证券：油散共振弹性可期 重点推荐油轮板块

Group 1: Oil Tanker Sector - The oil tanker sector is expected to benefit from strong demand driven by OPEC+ production increases and a potential decline in crude oil prices, which may stimulate inventory replenishment needs [1][3] - As of October, VLCC-TCE rates have surged to nearly $100,000 per day, marking a new high since the second half of 2020, indicating robust demand recovery [3] - The average age of the oil tanker fleet is 14.07 years, with 20.57% of vessels over 20 years old, while current orders only cover 13.29% of existing fleet capacity, suggesting a tightening supply trend [3][4] Group 2: Dry Bulk Shipping Sector - The dry bulk shipping sector is poised for growth due to increasing demand from Guinea's bauxite exports and the upcoming production of the Simandou iron ore project, which is expected to enhance shipping distances [1][5] - The average age of dry bulk vessels is 12.78 years, with only 10.26% of the fleet under order, indicating a potential acceleration in fleet aging and capacity reduction due to environmental pressures [5] - If geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine situations stabilize, post-war reconstruction efforts could further boost dry bulk shipping demand [5] Group 3: Container Shipping Sector - The container shipping sector is anticipated to experience a continued loosening of supply, with demand being negatively impacted by weak consumer demand in Europe and the U.S. and uncertainties from U.S.-China trade tensions [2] - In contrast, emerging markets in Southeast Asia are driving long-term growth in container volumes between China and Southeast Asia [2] - The average age of the container fleet is 14.10 years, and the fleet is expected to grow to 32.94 million TEU by 2026, indicating a potential for continued downward pressure on freight rates [2]