鲍威尔警示就业数据存“系统性高估” 鸽派路径或延续至2026年

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has prioritized concerns over the labor market, leading to a 25 basis point rate cut with a 9-3 voting outcome [1] - There are indications that if the labor market remains weak, policymakers may lean towards further rate cuts in the future [1] - Jerome Powell highlighted that employment growth may have been negative in recent months, suggesting a need for more accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Powell referred to a "systematic overestimation" of job growth, with a preliminary estimate indicating that employment growth was overestimated by 911,000 over the past 12 months [2] - The balance between supporting the labor market and controlling inflation will be central to policy-making as the Fed approaches 2026 [2] - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding the direction of interest rates, with some opposing the recent cut and others suggesting further easing may be necessary [2] Group 3 - If inflation is subsiding while the labor market remains weak, the Fed is expected to adopt a more accommodative stance, especially with Powell set to step down in May [3] - Market expectations indicate that conditions for further rate cuts will be met if labor demand weakens and unemployment rises [3] - Futures markets suggest that the next rate cut may not occur until April of next year, with a possibility of two or even three cuts in 2026 [3]