工业硅偏弱、多晶硅偏强，“双硅”走势为何出现分化？

Core Viewpoint - The futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon have diverged significantly, with industrial silicon prices declining while polysilicon prices have risen sharply [1] Group 1: Industrial Silicon Market - Industrial silicon futures prices have weakened, with the main SI2601 contract closing at 8340 yuan/ton, down 3.47%, breaking previous support levels [1] - The decline in industrial silicon prices is attributed to weakened supply and demand, with expectations of reduced demand from organic silicon companies and a seasonal decrease in production [1][3] - Analysts note that the production cost of industrial silicon may decrease due to falling coal prices, which are crucial for its production [2] Group 2: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon futures prices have increased, with the main PS2601 contract closing at 55610 yuan/ton, up 3.45%, and several distant contracts rising over 5% [1] - The rise in polysilicon prices is influenced by news regarding the establishment of a "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform," which has generated significant market interest [2] - The ongoing "polysilicon storage" initiative has been a key factor supporting the price increase, although the overall demand in the photovoltaic industry remains weak [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current market conditions for both industrial silicon and polysilicon are characterized by weak supply and demand, with polysilicon prices likely to converge with spot prices due to these conditions [4] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate around cost lines, with attention needed on coal prices and electricity rates in the northwest [5] - Despite expectations of a rebound in polysilicon prices due to "anti-involution" sentiments, the fundamental market conditions remain weak, limiting upward price potential [5]