KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-12-12 03:20Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai continues to decline, with wholesale prices dropping below the official guidance price, leading to divergent market opinions on its future trajectory [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 12, the wholesale price of 53-degree Feitian Moutai has fallen below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle, with current prices at 1485 yuan for single bottles and 1495 yuan for cases [1]. - Prior to November 20, the price had seen a temporary rebound, reaching 1655 yuan per bottle for single bottles and 1690 yuan per case, but this was followed by a rapid decline as Moutai increased market supply [1]. - The overall trend indicates a consistent decline in Moutai prices across different regions, with wholesalers losing confidence and adopting a quick turnover strategy instead of stockpiling [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Some merchants believe that the fluctuations in Moutai prices are not a major concern, as the consumer base remains stable regardless of price changes, and the profit margins for merchants have not significantly altered [2]. - The current pressure is primarily affecting Moutai distributors and the company itself, with distributors facing increased financial strain due to the overall market performance of other Moutai products [2]. - Analysts suggest that the decline in wholesale prices is a sign of the market returning to rationality, which could help eliminate speculative bubbles and align prices with genuine consumer demand [2][3]. Group 3: Future Implications - The ongoing price decline may lead to the exit of scalpers and speculators from the market, although there may still be some downward price inertia in the short term [3]. - Distributors may need to shift from a passive to an active sales approach, focusing on service enhancement and innovative marketing to build new competitive advantages [2].