TMGM外汇：原油价格波动，美元兑加元维持于1.3770区域整理！

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD currency pair is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the USD recently hitting its lowest level since September 17, driven by diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve's dovish shift is a primary factor pressuring the USD, with market expectations for more rate cuts next year following comments from Chairman Jerome Powell [3]. - The Fed's official forecast indicates only one more rate cut by 2026, while the market has already priced in a more accommodative stance, weakening the USD's interest rate advantage [3]. - In contrast, the Bank of Canada's hawkish stance supports the CAD, with Governor Tiff Macklem stating that current interest rates are appropriate, signaling the end of the rate-cutting cycle [3]. Group 2: Oil Price Impact - The CAD's upward momentum is being restrained by fluctuations in oil prices, which are closely linked to the CAD's performance [5]. - International oil prices have significantly dropped this week, reaching their lowest level since October 21, impacting Canada's energy export expectations and limiting the CAD's appreciation potential [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding oil prices, influenced by geopolitical risks and OPEC+ policies, may lead to volatility in the CAD exchange rate [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD has broken through key support levels, with short-term moving averages indicating a bearish trend [5]. - The RSI indicator shows oversold conditions but has not yet reached a bottom, suggesting ongoing downside risks [5]. - A drop below the 1.3750 level could lead to further declines towards the 1.3700 mark, while resistance is noted around 1.3820, which must be reclaimed to alleviate short-term bearish pressure [5].