美联储购债规模超预期，华尔街集体修正2026年预测！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve plans to purchase $40 billion of short-term U.S. Treasury securities monthly, exceeding market expectations, which has led to revisions in debt issuance forecasts for 2026 and a decrease in borrowing costs [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve will begin purchasing short-term U.S. Treasuries this Friday to alleviate short-term interest rate pressures by rebuilding reserves in the financial system [2]. - Barclays estimates that the Fed's total purchases of short-term Treasuries could reach $525 billion by 2026, significantly higher than the previous forecast of $345 billion [2]. - The net issuance of short-term Treasuries for private investors is expected to drop from $400 billion to $220 billion due to the Fed's actions [2][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Major banks, including JPMorgan and Bank of America, anticipate that the Fed will absorb a larger amount of debt, with Bank of America suggesting that the Fed may need to maintain this accelerated purchasing pace for a longer duration [2][3]. - Strategists believe that these measures will help alleviate market pressures accumulated from the Fed's previous balance sheet reductions, benefiting swap spreads and the SOFR-federal funds rate basis trades [2][7]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - Analysts from various banks, including CIBC and Deutsche Bank, note that while the Fed's aggressive purchasing indicates a low tolerance for financing pressures, it may not completely eliminate market volatility [3][6]. - The Fed's actions are seen as a proactive measure to manage the transition to an "ample" reserve level, indicating a more cautious approach compared to 2019 [6]. - The anticipated monthly purchase of $40 billion is viewed as a high-end estimate, with adjustments likely based on the Fed's liability needs [15].