降息之外，关键时期的美联储面临的关键问题

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% reflects a more optimistic economic outlook, despite internal dissent within the Fed [1][2]. Economic Forecast - The median forecast for U.S. GDP growth has been raised to 1.7% for this year and 2.3% for next year, while inflation forecasts have been lowered to 2.9% and 2.4% for PCE and core PCE respectively for the next two years [1]. - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% at the end of this year and 4.4% by the end of next year, with interest rates expected to be 3.4% by the end of 2026 and 3.1% by the end of 2027 [1]. Market Reaction - The market responded positively to the Fed's decision, which was in line with expectations, and emphasized the Fed's ability to "wait and observe" economic developments [2]. Challenges Faced by the Fed - The Fed is navigating unprecedented challenges, including the impact of the global pandemic, which has led to the highest inflation rates since the 1980s and necessitated a year-long series of interest rate hikes [2][3]. - The Fed's reliance on economic data has been compromised due to budget cuts and staffing shortages, leading to concerns about data quality and delays in key economic indicators [3]. Independence of the Fed - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat, with recent actions from the White House raising concerns about its ability to control inflation and maintain the value of the dollar [4]. - The potential nomination of a new Fed chair who may prioritize interest rate cuts poses additional risks to the Fed's independence and decision-making process [5].