中金：中央经济工作会议强调房地产防风险 明年货币政策放松或加快

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes risk mitigation in the real estate sector, indicating a shift in focus from stimulating the economy through real estate to managing risks associated with it [1] Group 1: Real Estate Policy - The conference included extensive discussions on real estate policies, exceeding market expectations, suggesting that related sectors may receive temporary attention [1] - The focus on real estate work is primarily on risk prevention rather than economic stimulation, reflecting a significant reduction in the real estate sector's contribution to the domestic economy [1] - A key point of interest for next year is whether second-hand housing prices can stabilize significantly [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The conference's statements on fiscal policy were somewhat restrained, likely due to the need for sustainable debt management, indicating that the broad fiscal deficit rate may not see substantial increases next year [1] - There was a reiteration of the prohibition on the illegal addition of hidden debts, along with a new emphasis on addressing the operational debt risks of local government financing platforms through multiple measures [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The tone regarding monetary policy was more positive, with a focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations [1] - This suggests that monetary policy easing may accelerate next year, particularly with a potential for quicker reductions in benchmark interest rates [1] Group 4: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The conference prioritizes the development of domestic demand as the foremost task for economic work next year, highlighting the importance of consumption in economic development [1] - Policies encouraging consumption are expected to continue to be strengthened [1]