债市，大调整！

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to face downward pressure, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.76% to around 1.86% in November, an increase of nearly 10 basis points [2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 4, the China Bond Composite Index fell by 0.2%, a significant drop compared to typical fluctuations [4]. - The bond market has been in a downward trend since mid-November, reaching new lows on December 4, which contradicts expectations of a year-end rally typically seen as institutions increase bond purchases [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rise in the 10-year government bond yield corresponds with a decline in bond prices, highlighting the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields [3]. - The recent sharp decline in the bond market is attributed to trading behaviors rather than fundamental changes in the macroeconomic environment [11][12]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of ultra-long bonds is expected to increase, with the issuance of special long-term government bonds projected to reach 1.3 trillion yuan by 2025, creating ongoing pressure on the market [13]. - Demand for long-duration bonds is weakening due to various factors, including banks' limitations on duration assessments and profit requirements, leading to a decrease in their willingness to hold long-term bonds [14]. - Recent regulatory changes have encouraged insurance funds to shift their investment preferences from the bond market to the stock market, further impacting demand for bonds [15]. Group 4: Policy Environment - The central bank is maintaining a loose monetary policy, as indicated by its recent liquidity operations, which aim to stabilize market expectations and provide a basic liquidity guarantee for the bond market [22]. - The central bank's actions, including the resumption of government bond trading operations, signal a potential "official buying" presence in the market, which could help stabilize market confidence [24]. - The overall policy direction remains supportive of a loose monetary environment, which is crucial for the bond market's long-term stability [25][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The current market panic may be overextending future pessimistic expectations, and as emotions stabilize, solid policy logic will likely reassert itself in pricing [26]. - The fundamental drivers of the bond market, including economic growth, inflation levels, and monetary policy, will continue to guide its medium to long-term direction [27].