GTC泽汇：金银强势突破与利率拐点

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate decision has led to a significant reversal in the precious metals market, with gold and silver prices reacting sharply to the announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - Gold prices rose sharply by $35 to reach a high of $4268 after the rate cut announcement, closing at $4257, reflecting a daily increase of 0.49% [1]. - The market's sensitivity to policy changes indicates that participants are adjusting their positions in anticipation of uncertain future interest rate paths [1]. Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices surged by $1.35 to break the $62 mark, reaching a record high of $62.20, with a daily increase of 1.67% [3]. - The continued momentum in silver is attributed to both safe-haven demand and its industrial properties, attracting more incremental funds amid improving cyclical expectations [3]. - The gold-silver ratio has compressed to 68.39, approaching the critical range of 62-65 set by GTC, suggesting a re-evaluation of the relative value of gold and silver [3]. Group 3: Policy Impact on Precious Metals - The rate cut has weakened the dollar's previous suppressive effect on gold and silver, providing stronger price support for precious metals [4]. - The cautious forward guidance from the Federal Reserve has created uncertainty regarding future easing steps, prompting increased allocation to safe-haven assets [4]. - The dollar index fell by 0.59% to 98.65 post-decision, illustrating the typical inverse relationship between a weaker dollar and rising precious metal prices [4]. Group 4: Structural Demand Trends - Structural demand, including continued purchases by official institutions, moderate ETF inflows, and strong physical buying in Asia, is a key driver of long-term performance in precious metals [5]. - Unlike previous bull markets, the current rise is more reliant on long-term allocation rather than short-term speculative drives, leading to a more stable trend [5]. - Gold is expected to show more stability while silver may exhibit stronger volatility, but both will benefit from the same macroeconomic fundamentals [5].