现房销售时代开启，中长线投资逻辑彻底变了！

Core Viewpoint - The shift towards 100% completed property sales in China represents a significant transformation in the real estate sales system, moving from a pre-sale model to a completed sales model, which is expected to impact housing prices and investment strategies in the long term [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Changes - A residential land plot in Shenzhen recently sold for 42,000 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 65%, indicating strong market demand [1]. - Since late 2022, over 30 regions in China have begun to support or implement completed property sales, marking a shift from trial to broader adoption [1][3]. - The proportion of completed property sales in the national residential market has increased from approximately 12.7% in 2020 to over 30% in 2024, reflecting a significant trend change [3]. Group 2: Price Implications - The transition to completed property sales is likely to lead to structural price increases, as developers face longer sales cycles and increased financial pressures [4]. - Developers with strong financial capabilities, such as state-owned enterprises and top-tier private companies, are expected to thrive in this new environment, focusing on high-quality products that can command premium prices [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, avoiding high-leverage and low-quality developers, as the new sales model will accelerate industry consolidation [5]. - The focus should shift towards core assets and high-quality properties, particularly in major cities and desirable locations, as these will demonstrate greater resilience and value retention [5][6]. - The investment mindset should transition from speculation to long-term asset allocation, prioritizing completed or near-completed properties that can withstand market fluctuations [6].