茅台，变天了？_凤凰网财经

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has officially fallen below the psychological threshold of 1499 yuan, indicating a significant shift in the market dynamics for high-end liquor [1][11]. Price Trends - As of December 12, 2023, the wholesale reference price for Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) has dropped to 1485 yuan per bottle and 1495 yuan per box, down from around 2200 yuan at the beginning of the year [1][11]. - The price has seen a continuous decline, breaking key thresholds: 2000 yuan in June, 1900 yuan in July, 1800 yuan in August, 1700 yuan in October, and 1600 yuan in November [1][11]. Market Impact - The breach of the 1499 yuan price point is seen as a critical market psychological barrier, affecting not only Moutai but the entire liquor market [3][13]. - The decline in price may lead to a vicious cycle of price drops and forced sales by distributors, potentially harming the brand's value and business model [4][13]. Industry Response - Moutai has a lower sales expense ratio of 3.5% compared to competitors like Wuliangye (10.8%) and Luzhou Laojiao (10.5%), providing it with a buffer to manage the current market challenges [6][15]. - The company has reduced market supply to stabilize prices, with a 22% decrease in contract liabilities year-on-year as of Q3 2023 [6][15]. Demand Challenges - The real challenge for Moutai lies in weak consumer demand, as the previous speculative buying behavior has led to increased inventory without actual consumption [7][16]. - Analysts suggest that Moutai needs to shift focus from being an investment and gift item to a product for genuine consumption to attract real buyers [7][16]. Future Outlook - The adjustment in the liquor industry is expected to continue, with Moutai's new chairman indicating that a quick recovery is unlikely [8][17]. - Moutai's revenue for the first three quarters of 2023 was 1309.04 billion yuan, with a net profit of 646.27 billion yuan, both marking the lowest growth rates since 2015 [8][17].