Group 1 - The concept of "resilience" has become a key focus for investors in the current uncertain market environment, with "portfolio resilience" identified as the top priority for investors through 2026 [1] - Despite a seemingly calm market with strong public equity performance and moderate bond yields, underlying complexities such as persistent inflation, increasing fiscal pressures, and geopolitical tensions are testing global stability [1] - The private equity sector is undergoing a recalibration phase, with fundraising and transaction activities remaining below pre-2022 levels, while exit channels are narrowing and holding periods are extending [1] Group 2 - Strategies that can navigate three complementary sources of resilience—local leaders, transformational growth, and diversified innovation—are favored in the current market [2] - Companies rooted in local markets benefit from stable demand and shorter supply chains, making them less susceptible to trade frictions, thus enhancing portfolio resilience against geopolitical shocks [2] - The small to mid-market acquisitions, defined as transactions valued under $1 billion, are emerging as a resilience engine for private equity, offering attractive entry valuations that are 40%-50% lower than larger acquisitions and public small-cap peers [2] Group 3 - The demand for income-generating assets is increasing, particularly in the context of a recovering commercial real estate market, where U.S. property values have stabilized over the past year [3] - As policy interest rates begin to ease, transaction activity and financing demand in the commercial real estate sector are recovering, creating attractive opportunities for private lenders due to a significant gap in debt and equity supply [3] - Infrastructure debt is highlighted as a reliable source of stable, defensive returns, supported by steady capital demand and tangible asset backing [3] Group 4 - Insurance-linked securities (ILS) are becoming increasingly important for diversification, driven by their performance being linked to insured events rather than economic growth, thus having low correlation with market and credit cycles [4] - Energy transition infrastructure is identified as a prominent long-term investment theme, with potential for stable returns linked to inflation and premium growth, while renewable energy has become a cost-effective power source in many regions [4][5] - In Europe, investments in renewable energy infrastructure have reached approximately €600 billion, expected to double to around €1.3 trillion by the early 2030s, positioning renewable energy and energy transition infrastructure as dominant asset classes in the sector [5]
施罗德投资：周期性与结构性因素汇聚 把握私募市场关键机遇
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-12 06:04