美联储“向左”欧央行“向右”：欧洲明年加息预期重燃，下周会议聚焦五大信号

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is increasingly viewed as being in a "good position" regarding its current monetary policy, leading to a significant shift in market sentiment towards the possibility of interest rate hikes in 2026, contrasting with previous expectations of rate cuts [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The ECB is expected to maintain the key deposit rate at 2% for the fourth consecutive meeting, supported by recent data showing a 0.3% economic growth in Q3, exceeding previous forecasts [2] - ECB President Christine Lagarde has set the tone for the meeting by stating that the policy is in a "good state," with investors keenly watching for any additional reasons to support the newly formed rate hike bets [2] Group 2: Policy Path - Market sentiment has dramatically shifted from expecting rate cuts to betting on rate hikes, with traders now estimating a 30% probability of an ECB rate hike by the end of 2026 [3] - ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel's hawkish comments have contributed to this shift, although she emphasized that any rate hike would not happen quickly [3] - Most economists agree that while the next move will be a rate hike, no changes are expected until the second half of 2027 [3] Group 3: Inflation Outlook - The ECB will release its first inflation forecast for 2028, which is crucial for assessing confidence in medium-term inflation targets, with expectations that inflation will return to or slightly exceed the 2% target [4] - If the forecast indicates a return to target levels, it would strengthen the argument that the current low inflation is only a temporary phenomenon [4][5] Group 4: External Shocks - Geopolitical factors, particularly the Ukraine situation and U.S. trade policies, are significant external variables for the ECB [6] - A potential peace agreement in Ukraine could support European economic growth and lower energy prices, but the ECB remains cautious about relying on Russian gas [6] - U.S. tariffs are viewed as a more immediate threat, potentially offsetting fiscal stimulus in Germany and defense spending across Europe [6] Group 5: Personnel Changes - The ECB has initiated a two-year restructuring process of its Executive Board, which will replace most members, starting with Vice President Luis de Guindos [7] - Despite the changes, the market believes this process will not significantly impact ECB policy, as key positions are likely to remain dominated by larger economies [7] - Lagarde has empowered the governing council with a stronger voice, and future leadership is expected to continue this consensus-driven approach [7]