山西证券：以潜能挖掘引领高质量发展新征程

Core Points - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, outlined key strategies for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the need to fully tap economic potential and focus on high-quality development [1] - The conference identified five "musts" for economic work, with a strong emphasis on internal demand and innovation as primary growth drivers [1] Group 1: Internal Demand and Consumption - The conference highlighted the importance of releasing consumption potential through various measures, including the implementation of special actions to boost consumption and the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to significantly increase the resident consumption rate, focusing on enhancing consumption capacity, willingness, and optimizing supply structure [2] - Policies introduced by six departments aim to provide a clear path for consumption growth, emphasizing service consumption and targeted supply for different demographics [2][3] Group 2: Investment and Infrastructure - The conference addressed the decline in infrastructure investment in the second half of 2025, proposing an increase in central budget investment and optimizing the implementation of key projects [4] - Infrastructure investment in 2026 is expected to focus on high-quality development, with emphasis on new infrastructure, regional coordination, and enhancing public service infrastructure [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The conference called for optimizing supply and addressing "involution" competition, with a focus on expanding effective supply and improving industry governance [5][6] - The establishment of a unified national market and the elimination of local protectionism are key strategies to enhance competition and improve market conditions [6] Group 4: Macroeconomic Policy - The conference outlined two main directions for macroeconomic policy: increasing counter-cyclical adjustments and enhancing the quality and efficiency of policies [7] - The fiscal policy will remain proactive, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and a focus on multiple objectives, including stabilizing growth and supporting innovation [8] - Monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, balancing the need for economic stability and reasonable price recovery while supporting fiscal policy efforts [9]