第一上海：维持中国银河“买入”评级 目标价12.66港元

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities (601881) is expected to continue releasing growth potential due to its advantages in risk management, customer base, and policy benefits, amid industry recovery and business structure optimization, with a target price of HKD 12.66 and a "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 22.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 10.97 billion, up 57.5% year-on-year; the weighted average ROE reached 8.77%, an increase of 2.97 percentage points year-on-year [2] - In Q3 alone, the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 4.48 billion, soaring 73.9% year-on-year and 29.0% quarter-on-quarter, marking the best single-quarter performance in history [2] Brokerage and Margin Financing - The brokerage business net income reached CNY 6.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 70.7%, accounting for approximately 28% of total revenue; Q3 revenue was CNY 2.66 billion, up 125% year-on-year and 54% quarter-on-quarter, significantly outpacing market transaction growth [3] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds in the market increased by 113% year-on-year to CNY 1.81 trillion, and the margin financing balance reached CNY 2.39 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 66.2% [3] Investment Performance - The net investment income (including fair value changes) for the first three quarters was CNY 12.103 billion, achieving a year-on-year growth of 42.4%; Q3 alone saw a year-on-year increase of 32.6% [4] - As of the end of Q3, the financial asset scale was CNY 417 billion, a 9% increase from the beginning of the year, with other debt investments increasing by 16.3% to CNY 256.7 billion [4] Investment Banking Recovery - Investment banking net income for the first three quarters was CNY 480 million, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%; equity underwriting scale reached CNY 24.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1,420% [5] - The bond underwriting scale was CNY 576.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 76.1%, with market share rising to 4.7% [5] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be CNY 14.7 billion, CNY 16.9 billion, and CNY 18.3 billion, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 46.5%, 14.9%, and 8.6% respectively [5]