“等等党亏麻了”，12GB内存将在中端机上消失？

Core Insights - TrendForce's latest survey indicates that memory prices are expected to rise significantly in Q1 2026, leading smartphone and laptop manufacturers to inevitably increase product prices, lower specifications, and further reduce shipment forecasts [1][2] Group 1: Smartphone Market - The share of memory in the Bill of Materials (BOM) cost for consumer electronics, including smartphones, is increasing, which may force companies like Apple to reconsider pricing strategies for new models and potentially eliminate discounts on older models [1] - For mid-range Android brands, the rising memory prices will likely compel them to increase new model prices and adjust existing model pricing or lifecycle to mitigate losses [1][5] - The low-end smartphone market is expected to see entry-level models revert to 4GB of memory by 2026 due to cost constraints [5] Group 2: Laptop Market - The rise in memory prices will lead laptop brands to adjust their product mix, procurement strategies, and regional sales layouts, particularly affecting high-end thin laptops that use soldered mobile DRAM [2] - In the consumer laptop market, while current inventory and low-cost memory may support short-term profits, long-term adjustments in specifications or pricing are anticipated, with a significant pricing adjustment expected in Q2 2026 [2] - Lenovo and Dell are reportedly planning price increases of approximately 15-20%, effective as early as mid-December [5] Group 3: Memory Pricing Trends - TrendForce forecasts a 30.9% quarter-over-quarter increase in DRAM industry revenue for Q3 2025, reaching $41.4 billion, with a projected 45-50% increase in DRAM contract prices for Q4 2025 [5] - All DRAM products, including High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), are expected to see price increases of 50-55% [5] - The global shipment forecast for laptops has been revised from a 1.7% year-over-year increase to a 2.4% year-over-year decrease for 2026 [5]