锂过剩“救命稻草”来了？储能崛起成需求新支柱 2026年或迎短缺反转

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that energy storage systems are becoming a significant demand pillar for lithium, potentially leading to a market shift from oversupply to balance by 2024 [1][4]. - Analysts predict that by 2026, demand from energy storage systems will grow faster than that from electric vehicles, with Citigroup, UBS, and Bernstein suggesting this expansion could lead to a supply shortage next year [1][4]. - The cost of building utility-scale batteries has decreased, and policies promoting the integration of more clean energy are driving the expansion of energy storage [4]. Group 2 - The global lithium market has faced oversupply for the past three years due to slower-than-expected electric vehicle demand and the inability to keep pace with new mining capacity [4]. - UBS analysts forecast that China's cumulative energy storage capacity could reach 180 GW by 2027, while in the U.S., energy storage systems are seen as an attractive solution to the growing power supply-demand imbalance [4]. - Demand for lithium in the energy storage sector is expected to grow by 55% next year, compared to a 19% growth in the electric vehicle sector [4]. Group 3 - Some industry observers remain cautious, predicting that supply will exceed demand growth next year, with concerns that optimism may be overstated [9]. - New mining capacity expansions are being claimed by countries such as China, Australia, Argentina, and some African nations, with bullish sentiments expressed by executives from Chinese producers [9]. - Analysts from Bernstein believe that supply cuts combined with strong demand will help transition the market towards a more balanced state, expecting the lithium market to tighten in 2026 and 2027 [9].