中央首提解决地方财政困难

Core Insights - The central government has emphasized the need to address local fiscal difficulties for the first time in history during the recent Central Economic Work Conference, highlighting the importance of ensuring basic public services and financial stability at the grassroots level [2][3]. Group 1: Local Fiscal Challenges - Local fiscal expenditures have consistently exceeded revenues, necessitating reliance on central government transfers and debt to cover deficits. In the first ten months of this year, local public budget revenues were approximately 10.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while expenditures reached about 19.1 trillion yuan, up 1.2% [3]. - The decline in real estate market revenues has significantly impacted local government finances, with land transfer income expected to drop to about 4.8 trillion yuan in 2024, a decrease of approximately 45% from the peak of 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 [3][4]. - Many local governments are facing severe fiscal pressures, with some even experiencing wage arrears due to insufficient funds to maintain basic operations and services [4]. Group 2: Policy Responses and Reforms - The central government is pushing for reforms to improve the local tax system, including the gradual transfer of certain consumption tax revenues to local governments, which could increase local fiscal autonomy [6][7]. - The government aims to enhance the matching of fiscal rights and responsibilities at the local level, with nearly 50% of county-level governments having a fiscal self-sufficiency rate below 30% [5]. - Experts suggest that increasing central transfer payments and raising local debt limits are essential to address the fiscal shortfalls caused by the real estate downturn, thereby restoring local governments' capacity to stimulate economic growth [10][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The anticipated increase in the total scale of new government debt for next year is expected to be around 15 trillion yuan, higher than this year's approximately 13 trillion yuan, to support local fiscal needs [10]. - Local governments are also encouraged to optimize their fiscal structures by enhancing the management of existing assets and reducing unnecessary expenditures to improve the efficiency of fiscal fund usage [10][11].